The Bookies Report – Gameweek 9

Safe to say you guys did not like our feature last week which was the bookies top 10 Forwards under £10m to score in Game-Week 8. Players who don’t start, let alone rarely feature managed to make it into our run-down which many felt were unjust and unhelpful. Yeah… Sorry about that! We try to report on what the bookies pricing strategy is for that particular week and compile it into something interesting and useful, however we do take on board your comments and for this week, we have attempted to produce something entirely different for you!

This week we have focused on trying to evaluate an entire squad of players based on win odds, clean-sheet odds as well as anytime goal-scorer odds to give you the best idea of what the bookies think would be the best 15 players to gain you points for that week within the £100m budget. Something which could be very helpful if you’re using your Wildcard picks and to give you that confidence making certain transfers or deciding who to pick from your squad for your starting 11.



West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion

The Hammers are 5/6 favourites to take the 3 points at the London Stadium with Brighton being priced at 7/2 to take the win. Brighton are also unlikely to obtain a clean-sheet here with the bookies making those odds as high as 10/3, however you can find very favourable clean-sheet odds for the home side at 11/10 meaning players like Reid (£4.9m), Cresswell (£5.0m) and Zabaleta (£4.9m) could be in line to add to their 3 clean sheets so far, this season. For our squad, we have found spaces for both Hart (£4.9m) as our substitute goal-keeper and Fonte (£4.9m) who have shown some great form of late and are West Ham’s highest points scorers. Chicharito (£7m) again, tops the charts of anytime goal-scorers but it’s another West Ham player who finds his way into our squad in the form of Antonio (£7.5m) who at 21/10 to score anytime looks like he will pose a real threat this week against the Seagulls.

Chelsea v Watford

The Blues are 10/3 on for the win here with Watford heavily outsiders at 10/1 despite their terrific start to the season. Chelsea are also very strong odds to shut-out the opposition at 10/11 with the bookies feeling Watford’s chances of a clean-sheet standing weak at 8/1. Morata (£10.2m) is the biggest threat on the field at 8/13 to score anytime if fit, with the major threat in midfield coming in the shape of 11/8 odds from Hazard (£10.6m). Both unable to find a place in our squad mainly due to their expensive price-tags, however we do find a slot in midfield for Watford wizard, Richarlison (£6.2m) who at 4/1 to score anytime looks like he can cause the home team some real problems, especially after not being able to beat Roma in mid-week.

Huddersfield Town v Manchester United

The Terriers look like they will be in for a long afternoon being priced at 11/1 to take the win at home to United with a clean sheet seeming extremely unlikely at 6/1. At the other end of the see-saw we find the away side as massive odds-on favourites at 3/10 whilst also claiming the title of most likely team of this Game-Week to earn a clean-sheet at 4/6 on. For these reasons we have included Jones (£5.3m) who Mourinho has confirmed will be fit to play this week, due to his ever-presence this season and contribution to 7 clean-sheets so far. Shortest odds to score anytime is of course Lukaku (£11.8m) who misses out on our squad also. As the league’s leading goal-scorer it was tough to leave him out but we have gone with the odds on this one with just two main strikers. Trust me, this was really, tough but you would be forgiven for including him in your side at the expense of someone else.



Manchester City v Burnley

City find themselves huge favourites at home to Burnley at odds of 1/12 with the clean sheet looking almost a certainty at 1/2. After blitzing through their latest opponents you’d be hard pressed to argue with those odds. Burnley find themselves at the bottom of the pile in terms of winning odds this week at a whopping 25/1 with the clean-sheet appearing to not be a clean-sheet at equally embarrassing odds of 22/1. Both Aguero (£11.5m) and Jesus (£10.7m) are priced very short to score anytime at 2/5 as you’d expect but we’ve put our faith in Jesus. He comes into our squad mainly due to Aguero’s current fitness status, Jesus’ fantastic form as well as his cheaper asking price. Also making their way into our Game-Week 9 squad is midfield duo, Sane (£8.4m) and Sterling (£8.1m) who have been consistently finding the net with consummate ease. The bookies have them as hot favourites to score both being priced at 11/10.

Newcastle United v Crystal Palace

The Magpies look to continue their 3-match unbeaten home record as 10/11 favourites for the win with the away side slightly longer at 3/1. Palace have the same odds for a clean-sheet at St. James Park with Newcastle more favourable at 7/5. 3 players in this match come into our Game-Week 9 squad, the first being Joselu (£5.5m) who finds himself priced very short to score anytime at odds of 17/10. He comes in as our back-up striker. After some important captain’s performances recently, Lascelles (£4.7m) earns a place as our cheap option in the back-line and coming into the midfield, we’ve plumped for the returning Zaha (£6.7m) who after coming back from injury, managed to rip Chelsea a new one last week and occupies odds of 11/4 to score anytime. He is Palace’s biggest threat.

Stoke City v AFC Bournemouth

The bookies have made the Potters 11/10 favourites for the home win with a clean-sheet priced at 7/4 against a Bournemouth side who find themselves with odds for the win 13/5 with the clean-sheet at 3/1. We took a long look at Choupo Moting (£5.6m) and Jese (£5.8m) for our Game-Week squad but decided despite them being the hottest to score at 11/5, there were some more in-form players available. Defoe (£7.7m) was also an interesting option being the away team’s most likely source of a goal at 23/10, however after being dropped in Bournemouth’s last game, felt there was a strong possibility of him not starting the game once more. We did though, include Stoke centre-half Cameron (£4.4m) as our second back up defender. Needed to save some money somewhere, right?


Swansea City v Leicester City

The Foxes play away at the Liberty Stadium with the bookies seeing them as only slight favourites at 13/8 with the Swans 9/5. A Leicester clean-sheet looks more likely at 2/1 although there isn’t a lot between the two sides with Swansea’s clean-sheet chances being rated at 11/5. We were unable to find places in our squad for any of the players on show in this match, however Vardy (£8.6m) is always a great shout to score anytime; He’s priced at 8/5. The home side’s main goal threat comes courtesy of Abraham (£5.7m) who after his brace against Huddersfield, only just missed out on a striker slot.

Southampton v West Bromwich Albion

The Saints have been priced up as short as EVENS for the clean sheet at home to the Baggies with the win odds-on at 5/6. This makes them big favourites for this match with West Brom far away in the betting at 4/1 to take the 3 points with a clean sheet looking unlikely at 3/1 after not earning a win in 6 straight matches. With clean-sheet odds this good, we had to take a look at some of the defensive options from Southampton for our squad. We’ve opted to include Forster (£5m) as first choice goal-keeper (but only just) and after being integrated back into the first-team fold, van Dyke (£5.4m) can show us what he’s really about, finally. A quick nod to Gabbiadini (£6.6m) who represents the best chance of a goal at St. Mary’s who may have had a look-in should we have gone with a different formation.

Everton v Arsenal

After some continuous poor form, the Toffees have been priced for the win at 11/4 with the clean sheet further out at 7/2. Safe to say the bookies prefer to install their faith in the away win which you can find at a price of EVENS with the clean sheet at 15/8. We did try to include Sanchez (£11.9m) into our squad but due to his price, felt it imbalanced the team and with a slight injury concern, just didn’t make much sense despite his short anytime goal-scorer odds of 13/8. Lacazette (£10.4m) has been priced as the most likely player to score anytime at Goodison Park; You can find him priced at 13/10. Everton’s best shot comes once again, in the shape of Rooney (£7.3m) but we’ve stayed well away from Everton players based on these odds.



Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool

The big match of the weekend is being hosted at Wembley where Spurs have been priced at 11/10 favourites to beat the travelling Liverpool who are slightly longer at 23/10. A clean sheet looks unlikely for both sides here with Spurs the shortest at 12/5 and Liverpool at 7/2 respectively meaning we should be in for some fireworks. Salah (£9.2m) was in the squad but our midfield became too rich; He’s priced at 21/10 to score anytime if you fancy bringing him in. Sturridge (£8m) and Firmino (£8.5m) provide the best options for Liverpool anytime goal-scorers both at odds of 15/8 but it’s that man Kane (£12.8m) who finds himself the shortest priced striker for the Game-Week, with odds of 5/6 to score anytime. Of course, he comes into the squad. Would be rude not to at that ridiculous price.

 

Game-Week 9 #TheBookiesReport Full Squad:

Goalkeeper:     

  • Forster – Southampton – £5m      

Defenders:

  • van Dyke – Southampton – £5.4m
  • Jones – Manchester United – £5.3m
  • Fonte – West Ham United – £4.9m

Midfielders:

  • Sane  – Manchester City  – £8.4m
  • Sterling – Manchester City – £8.1m
  • Antonio – West Ham United – £7.5m
  • Zaha – Crystal Palace – £6.7m
  • Richarlison – Watford – £6.2m

Forwards:

  • Kane – Tottenham Hotspur – £12.8m
  • Jesus – Manchester City – £10.7m

Bench:

  • Hart – West Ham United – £4.4m
  • Joselu – Newcastle United – £5.5m
  • Lascelles  – Newcastle United – £4.7m
  • Cameron – Stoke City – £4.4m

Please leave a comment and let us know what you think of #TheBookiesReport this week. We love hearing your views on if you agree, disagree and what changes YOU would make.

Please note: This report is based on the odds provided and could be subject to variance.

Many thanks for reading and may the odds be ever in your favour.

 

By Ashley Nugent



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