The Bookies Report – Gameweek 14

Woah! The matches are coming thick and fast in the run-up to Christmas so we’re coming to you early with this snap game-week’s The Bookies Report just in time for the mid-week fixtures.

Let’s touch on last GW’s performance where our selection earned a total of 54 points which in a week where the average was 43 points, we consider this a very good result. Our top scorers were David De Gea (£5.8m) and Chris Smalling (£5.4m), both of Manchester United who fetched 6 points each after their clean-sheet at home to Brighton. Shkrodan Mustafi (5.3m) earned himself 7 points after his rock-steady performance and clean-sheet away at Burnley with his Arsenal side. In a week where our defenders outperformed the midfield, Ryan Bertrand (£5.4m) of Southampton created 2 goals for his team in their home win against Everton notching up a huge 9 points and finding himself in the GW 13 Dream Team. Top pick! Our midfield struggled with 8 points between the 4 of them despite us having 2 of the week’s favourites to score anytime and poor old Nicolas Otamendi (£5.8m) scoring past his own keeper and drawing a blank in the points department. Callum Wilson (£5.9m) was a poor pick only earning 2 points, however we captained Harry Kane (£12.8m), he scored in Spurs home draw to West Brom thus giving him a total of 16 points. So, if you took our advice with your teams, you should have had a pretty decent week. Now we move on to GW 14. Check this out…



Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace

This quick-fire game-week kicks off on Tuesday 28th at 7.45pm from the AMEX Stadium where the Seagulls face-off against the travelling Palace. Brighton are favourites to win this match by a width of hair at odds of 8/5 (1.6) with Crystal Palace’s chances at 15/8 (1.87). Brighton also edge it in the clean-sheet department with their odds of a shut-out at 17/10 (1.7) with Palace at 2/1. Glenn Murray (£5.8m) is the favourite to score anytime for the home side at 12/5 with Tomer Hemed (£4.9m) available at the same odds. For the away side, Christian Benteke (£7.6m) leads the scoring odds at 11/5 (2.2) whilst Wilfired Zaha (£6.9m) finds his odds of scoring anytime at 11/4 (2.75).

Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur

The Foxes are at home to Spurs at the King Power with the same kick-off time as the Brighton game. Tottenham are the 8/11 (0.72) favourites to take the win here with Leicester the clear outsiders at 7/2 (3.5). Spurs are also the most likely team of the game-week to keep a clean sheet at 8/15 (0.53) with the home sides chances of a blank sheet out at 4/1. For this reason, we have picked Hugo Lloris (£5.5m) to come in goal for your team. He’s kept 5 clean sheets in 12 games for his side. To maximise these odds, we’ve gone for a Spurs defender in the shape of Kieran Trippier (£5.7m). He’s kept 4 clean sheets and assisted 4 goals in his 10 appearances so comes into our team. Jamie Vardy (£8.5m) is the pick of the Leicester players to score anytime at 15/8 (1.87) whilst Harry Kane (£12.8m) remains odds on to score anytime at 8/11 (0.72) but for the first time in 5 weeks, doesn’t make it into our team with other strikers’ odds proving to be even shorter than the England man in this game-week.



Watford v Manchester United

Kicking off at the slightly later time of 8pm from Vicarage Road, the Hornets welcome the Red Devils into town. United are the clear favourites to take this one at 8/13 (0.61) with Watford’s chances of taking all 3 points at a measly 9/2 (4.5). This making United the 5th most likely team to win in this game-week. United are also the 5th most likely team this week to keep a clean-sheet at 13/10 (1.3) looking very strong. The home team’s clean-sheet odds are the same as their win odds. Not very good. Richarlison (£6.6m) is once again, Watford’s most likely shot of scoring at 11/4 (2.75) with Andre Gray (£6.3m) a 3/1 shot. Romelu Lukaku (£11.5m) representing the away side’s most likely threat of scoring at 10/11 (0.9) with Anthony Martial (£8m) looking the sharpest player to pick from midfield at odds of 15/8 (1.87) anytime. Despite these favourable odds for United, we couldn’t find any space in our squad for them… You’ll see why.

 

West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United

Joining Watford’s kick off time is this fixture between the Baggies and the Magpies at the Hawthorne’s where manager-less West Brom will be looking to capitalise on their surprise point away at Spurs. West Brom are the 13/10 (1.3) favourites to take this one with Newcastle pushed out to 12/5 (2.4) after being humbled at home by Watford. Salomon Rondon (£6m) and Jay Rodriguez (£5.6m) are the main picks in the anytime goal-scorer market both being priced at 23/10 (2.3) for West Brom whilst Newcastle’s best hope for a goal lies with Dwight Gayle (£6.1m) and Joselu (£5.5m) who are equally priced at 11/4 (2.75).



Arsenal v Huddersfield Town

After a somewhat fortunate win over Burnley in their last game, the Gunners face the Terriers in a Wednesday kick-off at the Emirates. Arsenal are mega favourites to win this tie at 1/6 (0.16) and are the joint most likely team to win this game-week. Huddersfield own the title of joint most likely team to lose this week, sadly for them. Arsenal are the 3rd most likely team to keep a clean-sheet too, at odds of 4/5 (0.8) with Huddersfield’s chances of a shut-out looking extremely unlikely at 16/1. We’ve found a couple of places in our team this week from Arsenal’s selection of players once again, including Shkrodan Mustafi (£5.4m) who with 6 clean sheets and 1 goal in 7 matches is looking in superb form to earn some points. We’ve also gone for Alexandre Lacazette (10.3m) up front who at 8/13 (0.61) is the 4th most likely striker to bag this game-week. He captains the side. On the bench we’ve found space for Alex Iwobi (£5.1m) who’s been getting in the side in the absence of Mesut Ozil (£9.3m) who see’s his odds of scoring anytime at 21/10 (2.1). Alexis Sanchez (11.8m) is this GW’s shortest priced midfielder to score anytime at 8/11 (0.72) but doesn’t make it into our team.

AFC Bournemouth v Burnley

The Cherries are EVENS to take this win at the Vitality Stadium with Burnley 3/1 outsiders to take all 3 points. The bookies also quite fancy the home side to keep a clean-sheet in this fixture at a price of 11/8 (1.37) with Burnley’s chances of keeping it clean again, at 3/1. Bournemouth are the 7th most likely team to win this week so we’ve filled our bench up with their moderately priced players. In goal we have Asmir Begovic (£4.5m), in defence is Steve Cook (£4.8m) and our substitute forward is Benik Afobe (£5.7m). Callum Wilson (£6m) is actually the game’s best hope of a goal at 13/8 (1.62) with Burnley’s Chris Wood (£6.4m) their most likely scorer at 9/5 (1.8).



Chelsea v Swansea City

The Blues face the Swans at Stamford Bridge in this encounter where Chelsea are massive favourites to win at 1/6 (0.16), the same odds as Arsenal. Swansea look set for a long afternoon, they’re a joint worst 16/1 to scoop 3 points away from home. The Swans are 11/1 not to concede which is highly unlikely with Chelsea’s chances of a clean-sheet the 2nd best of the game-week at 4/6 (0.66). For this reason, we’ve opted to go for Andreas Christensen (£5.4m) in defence. He’s kept 3 clean-sheets in 9 appearances and is having a decent run in the team thanks to David Luiz’ incompetence. Also coming into the side is a duo of Chelsea midfielders. Cesc Fabregas (£6.9m) is 23/10 (2.3) to score anytime so makes it in alongside Willian (£6.7m) who after scoring that brilliant cross against Liverpool is 12/5 (2.4) to get on the score-sheet. We realise these guys are both usually subs but we’ve gone with the odds as that’s what we do! We did have Alvaro Morata (£10.5m) in the team but had to re-jig things to accommodate the budget. He’s the games best chance of a goal at 8/15 (0.53) whilst Eden Hazard (£10.6m) isn’t far behind in the betting at 4/5 (0.8) and is this GW’s second most likely midfielder to score anytime.

Everton v West Ham United

The Toffees who are in desperate need of a win find themselves 5/4 (1.25) favourites to pick up a win at home to the Hammers who are 23/10 (2.3) to take all 3 points. Even with their shaky defence, the home teams’ odds of a clean-sheet sit at a modest 7/4 (1.75) whilst David Moyes’ team see their clean-sheet odds at 11/4 (2.75) on his return to his former club. Wayne Rooney (£7.3m) is this fixtures’ best chance of a goal at 2/1 with the major threat from midfield coming from Gylfi Sigurdsson (£8m) at 5/2 (2.5) odds. Hammers front-man, Andy Carroll (£5.9m) is West Ham’s best chance of a goal at 5/2 (2.5).



Manchester City v Southampton

City take on the Saints at the Etihad Stadium looking to continue their unbeaten run. City join Arsenal and Chelsea as joint most likely team to win this week at 1/6 (0.16) whilst Southampton are up against it, they’re 14/1 to win; the worst odds of the entire game-week. City have the 4th best chance of a clean-sheet but are still odds on at 10/11 (0.9) whilst the Saints look certain to concede sitting bottom of the clean-sheet pile at 14/1. These odds are heavily tilted in City’s favour, so we’ve gone for 3 of their players to come into our game-week team. Firstly, after returning from injury, we’ve picked Vincent Kompany (£5.8m) who has kept 2 clean sheets the 5 games he has played in this season. We’ve gone for Raheem Sterling (£8.1m) who can’t stop scoring. He has 8 goals and 4 assists in 11 matches for his team. Lastly, we’ve gone for Gabriel Jesus (£10.5m). We think with 2 games in close proximity, that after starting with Aguero on Sunday, he will start this match with the fresher Jesus who is 4/9 (0.44) odds on to score anytime. It’s a bit of a risk, especially when the bookies thing Sergio Aguero (£11.7m) is this weeks most likely anytime goal-scorer at chart-topping odds of 4/11 (0.36). We’d run out of money for him anyway!

Stoke City v Liverpool

The Potters face a stiff test welcoming the Reds to the Bet365 in this 8pm kick-off on Wednesday. Liverpool are firm favourites to obtain all 3 points in this fixture at 8/15 (0.53) making them the 4th most likely team to win this game-week. Stoke are 9/2 (4.5) to take a surprising win here with their clean-sheet hopes looking terrible at 6/1. Liverpool’s odds aren’t great either, they’re 8/5 (1.6) to stop Stoke scoring. We finish off our weekly team with the unstoppable Mohamed Salah (£9.6m) who’s scored 10 goals and assisted 3 in 13 games for Klopp’s men. He’s the 3rd most likely midfielder to score anytime this GW at 11/10 (1.1) and the most likely player to score out of everyone on this pitch, a shorter price than Roberto Firmino (£8.5m), Daniel Sturridge (£8m) both 13/10 (1.3) anytime and Sadio Mane (£9.3m) who is 8/5 (1.6) to score anytime.

So after all that…  Here is our final squad for Game-Week 14:



 

Please leave a comment and let us know what you think of #TheBookiesReport. We love hearing your views on if you agree, disagree and what changes YOU would make.

Please note: This report is based on the odds provided at the time of the article and could be subject to variance.

Many thanks for reading and may the odds be ever in your favour.

By Ashley Nugent



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