The Bookies Report – Gameweek 11

OK, so last week it’s fair to say was a bit of a bust… There were some plus points but the bookies did miss when it came to the forward options. The odds suggested that players like Lacazette and Sanchez were destined to score in what was supposed to be a stroll in the park against Swansea but it wasn’t to be on this occasion. In fact, our whole team fired a blank this week earning a total of just 29 points with an additional 9 points sitting on the bench. Such a disappointing showing especially after the 72 points we tallied up last week. We captained Aguero and he didn’t even get on the pitch… Outrageous behaviour!! Let’s put it down to ‘one of those weeks’ and move the hell on. Now we did get loads of stick for including two of Liverpool’s back-line which could be understandable considering Klopp’s side’s terrible defensive record this season. I am, however extremely pleased to say that the bookies got this one right with Mignolet (6pts) and Gomez (6pts) helping Liverpool to a clean sheet at home to the Terriers. Now we would normally say ‘we told you so’ or something like that but the bookies have kind of done that for us =) Notable mentions go to Townsend (6pts) of Palace and on our bench, Simpson (6pts) of Leicester City who were our joint highest points scorers of the week. Enough of that, let’s turn our attention to what Game-Week 11 might bring in #TheBookiesReport with our weekly squad.



Stoke City v Leicester City

We begin our feature this week at the bet365 Stadium where hosts Stoke, face-off against the Foxes in the early kick-off. Stoke have been made marginal favourites for this tie at 6/4, probably due to home advantage but they go into the game 1 point behind the industrious Leicester who are 15/8 to win this fixture. Again, not much to choose between these two sides in the clean-sheet market with the Potters just about edging it once more at 11/5. You can find the Leicester clean-sheet at 13/5. In the goal-scorer markets, leading the way is England international Vardy (£8.6m) who’s scored 6 goals already this season and represents the game’s best shot of a goal. Closely followed behind him is Stoke’s Choupo-Moting (£5.7m) priced at 21/10 to score anytime. We haven’t found space for either of these guys but we did find a slot in our midfield for the sizzling Shaqiri (£5.9m) who after racking up another assist last week (3 in total) looks great value at 11/4 to bang in a left-footed curler from 25 yards out.

Huddersfield Town v West Bromwich Albion

Only two points separate these sides in the table with the home team looking down at the Baggies in the Premier League standings. The bookies have taken note and is why the Terriers have been made very slight favourites to take the three points at the John Smith’s Stadium with odds of 17/10. In fairness to West Brom, the odds don’t get much closer than this; they’re priced at 15/8 to take an away win back to the Hawthornes. Interestingly, Huddersfield have been made the fourth most likely team to earn a clean-sheet this game-week at 7/5 with West Brom, again not far behind at 17/10. Nil-nil anyone?? No real intrigue in the anytime goal-scorer markets in this one, however we couldn’t ignore these clean sheet odds for Huddersfield and the chance to add some bargain players! We’ve chosen Chris Lowe (£4.5m) who is Huddersfield highest scoring defender so far, this season. He has helped his team to five clean sheets in total and has managed to feature in every game making him a wise choice for us. We’ve also plumped for Jonas Lossl (£4.6m) who makes it onto our bench as the substitute goal-keeper. He is Huddersfield’s top points scorer this season after keeping four clean-sheets and at this price, we had to stick him in. Let’s hope they don’t get a loss-l… get it? Yeah, terrible I know.

Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth

The Magpies have been made heavy favourites to win this one at St. James’ Park at 10/11 with the Cherries way out at 3/1. Incidentally, Newcastle are the fifth most likely team this game-week to win their match whilst also being the fifth most likely to keep a clean-sheet with odds to do so at 6/4. Bournemouth’s odds of a clean-sheet look despairingly at a price of 10/3 showing the bookies fancy the home side to stick a couple past Bournemouth and lock-down three points. In the goal-scorer markets it’s pretty much all Newcastle… You can find Gayle at 17/10 anytime whilst the ghost of Aleksandar Mitrovic could spook you at 13/8 anytime. Both players, however have fallen behind Joselu (£5.5m) in the pecking order who is also 13/8 to score anytime. He’s managed two goals so far, this season and is the most likely option on the pitch but fails to make it into our team. From a midfield perspective, there were a couple of options… The more obvious choice being Ritchie (£5.9m) who’s racked up five assists in the league but we’ve opted to go with Atsu (£5.1m) who as the cheaper pick, feel he can add to his one goal and two assists. Both are priced at 11/4 to score anytime. Finally, making it into our defence is the skipper Lascelles who as the clubs leading points scorer (43pts) still represents fantastic value at just £4.7m and will be looking to add to his three clean sheets and two goals already, this season.



Southampton v Burnley

Saints fans will be delighted to learn the bookies have made the home side massive favourites to win this fixture with a firm price of 8/13 making them the third most likely team of the game-week to warrant a win. The Clarets have been pushed as far out as a whopping 5/1 meaning an away win should be firmly out of reach. In the clean-sheet market, the Saints make for even better reading; they are the second most likely team of game-week 11 to keep it clean. You can find them as short as 10/11 to shut out Burnley whilst the away team are way out at 7/2 not to let one in. For these reasons, we have stuck once again, with van Dijk (£5.4m). Slowly earning the points since his return and looks solid. We could have gone for Cedric (£5m) equally, but feel van Dijk poses more of a threat from set-pieces. We’ve also decided to call up Gabbiadini (£6.6m) after the bookies made him 6/4 to score anytime in this match; that’s the seventh best striker odds for this game-week so we had to have a bit of that. We had room for one more player to come onto the bench for our side. We had a look at Tadic (£6.4m) as well as Redmond (£6.2m) but felt a lack of consistency meant they missed out so instead, we went for the completely consistent Sofiane Boufal (£5.7m) to give us some guaranteed points as a sub. Please note the sarcasm…

Swansea City v Brighton & Hove Albion

Next up we have the Swans at home to the Seagulls. The battle of the birds if you will. Swansea are the 5/4 favourites to beat the visitors whilst Brighton see their chances of earning three points distinguished by their 13/5 price. You can find the Brighton clean-sheet at modest odds of 21/10, however the real surprise is the 13/10 price on the home side keeping a shut-out; this makes the Swans the third most likely team of the week to keep a clean sheet! We had to have a little bit of this so we’ve selected the fabulous Fabianki (£4.6m) who has helped his struggling side to four clean-sheets out of 10 whilst putting in a string of superb performances. He comes in goal for us. Also coming into the squad is Swans centre-half Mawson (£5m) who has played every minute of every game, also keeping four clean sheets but chipping in with a single goal too. We’ve got him on the bench as to not have too many Swans players in there in case it all goes Pete Tong but you would be forgiven for including him in. Not making it into our squad is Abraham (£5.9m) who finds himself top of the anytime goal-scorer market in this match at 8/5. Sadly for him, Gabbiadini just about gets the nod. I’m sure Tammy will understand…

West Ham United v Liverpool

The bookies have made the travellers 6/4 odds on to come to the London Stadium in the late kick-off and pick up the win whilst West Ham see their chances in the form of a 7/2 price to win. That-being-said, Liverpool’s chances of a clean-sheet aren’t as popular at 15/8 meaning despite their shut-out at home to Huddersfield last week, the bookies feel they may once again show some defensive frailties. Hammers fans will be disheartened at their clean-sheet odds; they’re 5/1 to stop Liverpool scoring. Sturridge (£8m) and Firmino (£8.5m) again represent the matches best chance of a goal both being priced at 13/10. These two just cannot be separated! We had a couple of other players in mind up-front so instead went for a midfield option to rattle the net in Mohamed Salah (£9.2m) who the bookies say is the third most likely midfielder to score in this game-week at 13/10. He’s racked up five goals and three assists in ten appearances so far, this season. Coutinho (£8.9m) looks tasty also, he’s just behind Salah in the betting at 7/5 but there’s a chance he might not be fit to play with a groin injury.



Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace

In the first of four Sunday matches we see Spurs take on Palace at their temporary home ground of Wembley Stadium after giving Real Madrid a lesson there in mid-week. Unsurprisingly, Tottenham are odds on at 2/9 to take the three points and are the most likely team to grab a win in this game-week. At the other end of the scale, Palace see their chances of a win as far out as a huge 12/1 meaning the bookies think this one is over already. Spurs also have the most likely shot of a clean-sheet from every team this game-week at odds of 5/6 whilst Palace look doomed for conceding several goals with their clean-sheet odds as large as 10/1. Based on this information, we’ve gone heavy with the Spurs contingent. Firstly, we had to have a defender in there… We’ve gone for Vertonghen (£6m) but you could equally have chosen Alderweireld or Davison Sanchez who are the same price. Just a preference here really. Now, unbelievably the bookies have made Son Heung-Min (£7.9m) the most likely player to score in this game-week from midfield at odds of 4/6 but we feel there is a good chance Son won’t feature, let alone start so as an alternative, we went for the second most likely midfielder to score in Alli (£9.3m). After his brace against the European champions, Alli should be buoyed and with an anytime price of 10/11 should find himself on the score-sheet. Our third and final pick from this game belongs to Kane (£12.6m) who after missing the last league match against Man United, will be desperate to continue his superb goal-scoring form and look to add to his current tally of eight goals. He takes the captain’s armband.

Manchester City v Arsenal

Although City have been made huge favourites to win this match against the Gunners at 4/9, their clean-sheet odds are as weak as Liverpool’s at 15/8 meaning the bookies feel City will definitely take the three points at the Etihad but are likely to concede. Arsenal are the second least likely team to win this game-week at the hands of City at 11/2 whilst also being the second least likely team to keep a clean-sheet at 17/2. Aguero (£11.8m) and Jesus (£10.6m) are both once again, the most likely operators to get on the score-sheet at 8/13 respectively. We had Aguero last week who didn’t get a single minute of action, so we’ve reverted back to the cheaper option of Jesus to make room for the other players. Please, Pep… Don’t leave Jesus on the bench this week… Pleaasseee! Lacazette finds himself at 21/10 to score anytime and is Arsenal’s biggest threat whilst the remaining hot-shots to score all wear the blue of Manchester. Sane (£8.7m) 7/5, Sterling (£8.2m) and Bernardo Silva (£7.5m) 6/4 and De Bruyne (£10.1m) 9/5 all signify fantastic chances of getting a goal. Sadly, we can’t squeeze them in as much as we’d like to!

Chelsea v Manchester United

In the second big clash of the afternoon, Chelsea welcome United back to Stamford Bridge where Chelsea have been made slight favourites at 6/4 to obtain the victory whilst United see their odds of winning cut to 2/1. Chelsea’s clean-sheet odds are 17/10 which is pretty, short and may indicate that United will be coming to the Bridge trying to nab the draw. The Red Devils odds of a clean-sheet are further out at 11/5 but we all know how tight their defence has been this season so don’t be surprised if there aren’t many goals in this one. From the striker options, Lukaku (£11.7m) and Morata (£10.3m) are your best hopes of a goal both being priced to score anytime at 17/10 with your most likely midfield goal coming in the shape of Hazard (£10.6m) at 11/4. With our squad complete we have no space for these guys but in what seems like a tight game, the bookies have pointed us in more fruitful directions.



Everton v Watford

In the last game of the weekend, the Toffee’s welcome the Hornets to Goodison Park in what is fast becoming a must-win game for the home side. Despite Everton’s terrible form, they have been made firm favourites to take this one at 11/10 with Watford’s chances of a win looking bleak at 13/5 after losing two on the bounce. You can find the Everton clean sheet at 13/8 which seems generous after shipping twenty goals already this season. In comparison, Watford are 3/1 to keep a clean-sheet after conceding eighteen goals this season themselves. Safe to say there should be some goals in this one. Rooney (£7.3m) is once again, the most likely player on the field to score at 15/8 with no Watford players coming close to him in the betting. Amazingly, Sigurdsson (£8.1m) is a pretty good shout to bag anytime at 12/5 from midfield… Better than Hazard, Boufal, Shaqiri and Atsu of which the latter three made it into our game-week squad.

 

Game-Week 11 Full Squad:

 

First Team

Goalkeeper:

  • Fabianski – Swansea City – £4.6m

 

Defenders:

  • Lowe – Huddersfield Town – £4.5m
  • Lascelles – Newcastle United – £4.7m
  • Van Dijk – Southampton – £5.4m
  • Vertonghen – Tottenham Hotspur – £6m

 

Midfielders:

  • Shaqiri – Stoke City – £5.9m
  • Salah – Liverpool – £9.2m
  • Alli – Tottenham Hotspur – £9.3m

 

Forwards:

  • Gabbiadini – Southampton – £6.6m
  • Jesus – Manchester City – £10.6m
  • Kane © – Tottenham Hotspur – £12.6m

 

Bench

  • Lossl – Huddersfield Town – £4.6m
  • Mawson – Swansea City – £5m
  • Atsu – Newcastle United – £5.1m
  • Boufal – Southampton – £5.7m

Total:    £99.8m



 

Please leave a comment and let us know what you think of #TheBookiesReport. We love hearing your views on if you agree, disagree and what changes YOU would make.

Please note: This report is based on the odds provided at the time of the article and could be subject to variance.

Many thanks for reading and may the odds be ever in your favour.

 

By Ashley Nugent



Leave a Reply