The Bookies Report – Gameweek 10

Firstly, a quick re-cap on The Bookies Report squad for last week. It was a good match-week for Southampton defenders managing to pick up a clean sheet at home to West Brom. We had Forster in goal who notched up 6pts but the stand out in defence for us was van Dijk who racked up 9pts with a commanding display meaning he made it into the Team of the Week. What a goal from Boufal by the way; Those Baggies defenders must still be reeling from that lovely cuddle they had on the deck. We should have opted for Lascelles who was on our bench instead of either Fonte (1pt) or Jones (1pt) as he helped Newcastle to a clean sheet against Palace earning himself 6pts for the Game-Week… Never-mind, you can’t win them all! Richarlison picked up 5pts for us but ohh it could have been so many more on another day. Sane kept good on his odds pitching in with a goal as well as an assist making his weeks points add up to a respectable 12pts whilst our big hitter Kane, notched up 16pts with a demolition job on Liverpool. Now we forgot to choose a captain last week but we definitely would have picked Kane… Haha! That would have provided a total points tally of 72pts which looks brilliant considering the average of 50pts. Looks like in Game-Week 9, #TheBookiesReport got it right!

In Game-Week 10, we do it all again choosing the best full squad within £100m budget based on win odds, clean-sheet odds and anytime goal-scorer odds. Let’s begin…



Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur

The early kick off in this game-week pits the wits of two big shots at Old Trafford where after a dismal display against Huddersfield, Mourinho’s men will be looking to bounce back against a Spurs side who obliterated Liverpool at Wembley. The bookies make United favourites to win this game at 5/4 with the clean-sheet at 7/4 whilst Spurs see their odds of a win pushed out to 23/10 with the clean-sheet at 13/5. We had a butchers at Martial (£8m) for this one with his odds of scoring from midfield the shortest on the pitch at 11/4 but decided due to being in and out of the team, there were more reliable options available. Both Lukaku (£11.7m) and our main man from last week, Kane (£12.7m) are both the shortest price to score anytime here at 13/10 but we’ve felt the need to drop Kane from our squad due to the closeness between these two teams. There are other strikers in this game-week who pose more of a threat due to their respective opposition so we’ve gone with the bookies odds on this one; after all, that’s what we do!

Arsenal v Swansea City

The gunners have the joint shortest odds of any team this week to pick up the 3 points in their home fixture against the Swans. The bookies have made them 1/5 on with the clean-sheet looking extremely likely at 10/11. At the other end, Swansea look destined for defeat at the Emirates being priced at 13/1 for the victory coupled with the worst odds of a clean-sheet this game-week at 12/1. Based on these odds, we’ve had to go strong on the Arsenal contingent. We’ve plucked for Iwobi (£5.1m) for a cheap option off the bench. He’s 15/8 to score anytime. In our starting line-up we’ve chosen the re-invigorated Sanchez (£11.8m) who represents the weeks best chance of scoring a goal from midfield at EVENS with Lacazette (£10.3m) coming in up front. He is this week’s joint shortest price anytime goal-scorer at 8/13 so at this price, looks fantastic value to score a couple of goals.

Crystal Palace v West Ham United

For once, Palace have been made slight favourites to win this match against the Hammers at odds of 7/5. This edges West Hams win odds of 21/10 with the bookies feeling Slaven Bilic’s side will continue to slump after their home defeat at the hands of Brighton last week. Despite being favourites, Palace find their clean-sheet odds at only 15/8 with West Ham’s clean-sheet odds obviously poorer at 13/5 showing the bookies confidence in some goals here. You’ll be pleased to know we have not chosen any West Ham players for our squad this week, however we have touted Townsend (£5.7m) for our midfield due to his positive performances as a make-shift striker as well as his short odds to score anytime as a midfielder at 11/4. Zaha (£6.7m) was in the side but we felt we had to balance out the amount of Palace players, especially after he let us down last week against the Magpies. That just didn’t fly!



Liverpool v Huddersfield Town

Even after being smashed to pieces by Spurs last week matched with their inability to defend, the bookies have made Liverpool joint favourites with Arsenal to win their match this week at home to the Terriers at 1/5 on. Bearing in mind the away side’s fantastic dismissal of United, Liverpool have been priced with the shortest odds of the entire week to keep a clean sheet at 5/6 on. That’s shorter than Arsenal! For these reasons, we have selected two defensive options from the home side in the form of Mignolet (£4.9m) in goal and Gomez (£4.5m) in defence. Both being very likely to start judging by recent history and both relatively inexpensive. If the bookies are right, these guys should be picking up a decent amount of points each. Salah (£9.1m) and Coutinho (£9m) offer us the most likely anytime goal-scoring odds from midfield in this match both being priced at EVENS. We couldn’t find spaces in our team for either of these guys due to their price tags whilst Sturridge (£8m) and Firmino (£8.5m) both 10/11 anytime, also miss out.

Watford v Stoke

After impressing at Stamford Bridge in their loss to Chelsea last week, Watford will be looking to get back on track with a home win against the Potters. The bookies have Watford as firm favourites for this one at EVENS with the clean-sheet at a modest 13/8. This shows the bookies have full confidence in a home win here which is understandable after Stoke’s last two matches ended in defeat. You can find the away win at 11/4 with shut-out odds looking very weak at 3/1. There are three players in this one which have made it into our squad this week, the first being Kiko Fermenia (£4.5m) who makes it onto our bench. A good chance of a clean sheet coupled with his cheap price-tag makes him a no brainer. We’ve also decided to stick with Richarlison (£6.3m), despite him missing two absolute sitters that I know for a fact, anyone’s nan would have scored. He still offers a real threat down the left-flank and at odds to score anytime of 21/10 represents Watford’s best chance of scoring from midfield. Last but certainly not least is the skipper Deeney (£6.3m) who at anytime odds of 15/8 makes him one of the most likely strikers to bag a goal this week outside of the obvious big hitters. Hopefully he can rough up the Stoke back-line before burying a sweet penalty!

West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City

The Baggies once again, face this City super-force in what could be a very long afternoon for the home team. West Brom occupy the third lowest chance of a win this week at a huge price of 11/1 with the clean-sheet at an equally woeful 9/1. That is also the third lowest of the week. As you would expect, City carry all the pressure going into this game with odds for the win 1/4 with the clean-sheet matching Arsenal’s at 10/11. For us, this means we have stayed well away from any West Brom players but have indeed selected a couple of City stars who should be able to steal the show. In defence we’ve gone for the ‘General’. That’s Otamendi (£5.9m) for those of you that don’t know. He offers clean sheets galore as well as a threat at the other end of the pitch. After his goal and overall display against Burnley last week he found himself in the Team of the Week; let’s hope that from can continue. After throwing a frustrating spanner in the works by keeping Jesus (£10.6m) on the bench last week, we can only assume that Aguero (£11.7m) is still the main man for the Citizens. He matches Lacazette in the anytime goal-scorer betting at 8/13 and just about edges Jesus’ odds of 4/6 meaning we’re bringing Aguero in as well as making him our GW 10 captain!



AFC Bournemouth v Chelsea

For this one down on the south coast the bookies have this one down firmly as an away win. The Cherries have been priced at 9/2 for the win with even longer odds for the clean-sheet at a massive 5/1. Chelsea, on the other hand see their winning odds for this match at 4/7 on with the clean-sheet looking ever-likely at 6/4 meaning nothing but a Blues win should be on the cards. With those kinds of odds we had to go with a Chelsea attacker but having already filled our three forward roles, there was no room for the shortest price anytime goal-scorer of the game in Morata (£10.3m). You can find him at 5/6. We tried to squeeze 17/10 anytime Hazard (£10.6m) in but he was too pricey so in the end we settled for Pedro (£7.9m) who after his stunner at Stamford Bridge last week will look to continue his confident form.

Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton

The Seagulls find themselves at 9/4 to obtain the three points here just being edged in the betting by a Southampton team who the bookies feel will nick this win at 7/5. You can find the Brighton clean-sheet at 2/1 but the more helpful offering comes from the away side’s clean-sheet odds which match that of Chelsea’s at 6/4. This means that we have stuck with two of the players we selected last week in Forster (£5.1m) who drops to the bench in favour of Mignolet, who’s clean sheet odds are far superior this week and van Dijk (£5.4m) who’s heroics in defence did not go unnoticed. He keeps his place in the heart of our defence. Err… Yeah… that’s about it for this one. Nothing further to mention. Enjoy…

Leicester City v Everton

Two teams who have had some recent manager problems come face-to-face at the King Power Stadium with the bookies favouring the home win at 11/10. This easily outweighs the Toffee’s chances of victory with them being priced for the win only at 13/5. The Leicester clean-sheet can be found at 13/8, the same as Watford’s with Everton way out in the betting for a shut-out at 3/1. With Claude Puel now named as manager of the Foxes, their fans can now expect to see some fast, flowing and vibrant football… Oh wait, they named Puel? Scratch that. The Foxes fans are now doomed for boredom! On a serious note, we’ve selected Simpson (£4.5m) for our bench. Leicester’s clean sheet odds look good value against the manager-less side plus he’s cheap! Your best hope of a goal comes once again from that man Vardy (£8.6m) who actually hasn’t scored in his last three games so this might be the occasion where he stops the rot.



Burnley v Newcastle United

These sides represent your best chance of a draw in game-week 10. With Burnley’s odds of a win at 15/8 with the Magpies odds only marginally better at 13/8 you would be forgiven for sitting firmly on the fence for this one. As if that wasn’t enough, both teams are inseparable when it comes to the clean-sheet odds with them both being priced at 15/8. Out go our Toon players from last week as we couldn’t see from the odds where they may earn some points. We did contemplate selecting Wood (£6.6m) in a striker role as his odds are better than Deeney’s at 17/10 anytime, however he has only 75% chance of playing this week due to a hamstring injury. If he does play, he is the most likely to score in the Monday Night Football at Turf Moor.

 

Game-Week 10 Full Squad:

 

First Team:

Goalkeeper:

  • Mignolet – Liverpool – £4.9m

 

Defenders:

  • Otamendi – Manchester City – £5.9m
  • Van Dijk – Southampon – £5.4m
  • Gomez – Liverpool – £4.5m

 

Midfielders:

  • Sanchez – Arsenal – £11.8m
  • Pedro – Chelsea – £7.9m
  • Richarlison – Watford – £6.3m
  • Townsend – Crystal Palace – £5.7m

 

Forwards:

  • Aguero – Manchester City – £11.7m
  • Lacazette – Arsenal – £10.3m
  • Deeney – Watford – £6.3m

 

Bench:

  • Forster – Southampton – £5.1m
  • Simpson – Leicester City – £4.5m
  • Kiko Fermenia – Watford – £4.5m
  • Iwobi – Arsenal – £5.1m

 

Total:    £99.9m



 

Please leave a comment and let us know what you think of #TheBookiesReport. We love hearing your views on if you agree, disagree and what changes YOU would make.

Please note: This report is based on the odds provided at the time of the article and could be subject to variance.

Many thanks for reading and may the odds be ever in your favour.

 

By Ashley Nugent



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