Pep Guardiola’s Wheel of Rotation!

Hello football enthusiasts, I guess you are not so enthusiastic this week, eh? International breaks are the boring part of every football fan’s life. I can speak for myself. So, this week I will be talking about the Fantasy Premier League (FPL). And one of the main ways to climb up those league rankings and brag about it with your mates is by selecting the right players from the best team in the league. And I don’t think any of you could debate this with me, but it just has to be Manchester City and I am not saying this because I am a city fan. They have completely outclassed every other team in the league, sitting at the top of the table with an 8-point lead after just 11 games. And the second placed team, Utd, have not shown half as much quality as city have. I would argue that city is the best team in the world at the moment, but what really matters is how long they can keep this form up.

So, coming back to the main topic, after my patriotic, emotional outburst, who are the three players to pick from this city squad? This has been a huge question for every FPL manager because Guardiola keeps rotating his squad which makes it hard to choose 3 sure short options. It depends where you need more points from? Defense, midfield or attack? If you are looking for points from the defense, three safe options would be Walker at £6.6 Million, Stones at £5.7 Million and Otamendi at £5.9 Million. All three of them are low risk since they play almost all games in the premier league and offer high reward, the highest being Walker who is the defender most involved in the attack and provides a few assists and also gets clean sheets. Followed by Stones who gets the odd goal and lots of Bonus points who is followed by Otamendi, who also gets goals. I put him behind Walker and Stones because he has a tendency of getting yellow cards which has now triggered a one game ban, so don’t buy him this weekend (GW12)!

The difficult question however is midfield. There are basically 5 midfielders switching in the premier league starting 11. Sane (£8.9), Sterling (£8.2), De Bruyne (£10.1), David Silva (£8.5) and Fernandinho (£5.2). Now, there are three sure short low risk medium reward options. They are the last three on the list. Pep almost always plays them because he knows city just cannot score without the three of them. But the problem is that Fernandinho always stays back and sometimes gets the odd goal. Silva is involved in a lot of goals through pre-assists, but unfortunately this is not appreciated in the FPL. De Bruyne is a decent player to have since even if he is not involved in the goals, he still gets bonuses and is perhaps the one most likely to get a goal amongst these 3. Now there’s 3 midfielders who will get you high reward through medium risk. Two crucial ones are Sterling and Sane. They have been scoring and assisting a lot this season, which is the reason Pep keeps rotating them and this is the hardest part, to predict who will start amongst these two. The third can be De Bruyne. He falls in the middle of the two categories.

Moving on to the forwards, it’s just a choice between Aguero (£11.8) and Jesus (£10.5). This is also not easy to decide since both are high risk high reward players.

This matrix perfectly describes everything. The place on the risk axis is determined by how often the player is in the starting 11. The place on the reward axis is decided by the amount of points the player could potentially earn. The 12 players in bold are those who usually are in the Premier League starting 11. So it’s up to you to decide between the safe options and risk options. The sweet spot is the dream place for a player to be. As for Gameweek 12, the three players I would want to choose would be Jesus, Sane and Kevin de Bruyne.

If you are a manager who likes to play it safe and want your player to be in the starting 11, just choose from the top left corner (Fernandinho could be a good choice since he is the cheapest amongst this list). However, if you are a high risk high reward type manager like me (I have Aguero, Sane and Sterling in my team currently), you must keep track of city games and the players’ playing time, since this is the only potential clue you will have about the squad rotation or you must simply be Pep Guardiola himself.

By Advik Musalekar

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